presented by Dr. Pepper. And at the moment, the College Football Playoff projected 12 team bracket looks like this. But if we’ve been following this sport long enough, you know the biggest upset of the weekend is going to be if next Tuesday we come back and it looks exactly like this. College football’s unpredictability center stage.
That’s what it looks like for now. This is the first weekend where we’ve got some possible clinching scenarios. But as good as all of these teams have been so far this season, keep in mind they would all need a win and then get, of course, the dreaded help so they could push closer to conference championship Saturday. But no outright clinching unless they win and then get some help. And with that, we welcome you inside College Football Live.
EJ Emanuel, Sam Ao, I’m Zuben Mahenti. Let’s get right to it. There are two gigantic SEC matchups this weekend. We’re going to hone in on both mustC, as they say.
Oklahoma and Alabama.
You know the deal with Oklahoma. They’re the two lost team in this matchup. So, they need this game so much more than, of course, the Crimson Tide do and they would see their playoff chances really move up. If they were to win, they would plummet with a loss. You know, last year if you got a chip and you’re Alabama, this game that Oklahoma knocked off, the Tide in Norman essentially kept Alabama out of the playoff.
It dropped them to their third loss of the season. But Bama has been absolutely great inside Brian Denny. As a wise man once said, “Last year was last year. This year was this year.” And with that being the backdrop, let’s hear from both coaches.
A year ago, good or bad. I’ve never carried over wins and losses. You learn from all of it. You know, obviously we went to their place and got beat up pretty good uh last year and coach Venibal’s done an amazing job instilling a culture there and uh you know, we know got a team that is coming here hungry. Motivated.
Yeah.
But I think the motivation for everybody is because what the opportunity is sitting in front of us. Such a big game. And let’s start with Oklahoma and you because we know Brent Venibals is a defensive specialist and that might be key because that’s the side of the ball you say is going to keep them in this game. Yeah, if Oklahoma wants a chance to compete and beat Alabama, they have to not only force turnovers on defense, but score on defense.
Going back to their last game versus Tennessee, they forced multiple turnovers, but in addition, they scored on defense. The offense was relatively in net. They were struggling to run the football outside of John Mat when he had a couple design runs, but the defense dominated from start to finish. They kept on taking the ball away from Joey Agalar. Even from the first play of the game till close to the end of the game, but they didn’t just take it away.
They found ways to get points and help out their offense. Right here, you see our Mason Thomas with the scoop and the score, the stiff arm that lasted like forever.
So, that’s what it’s going to take for Oklahoma. Alabama, we know how good their offense is, but Tai Simpson doesn’t turn the ball over very much. So, it’s got to be something that gives.
And Sam, that’s the thing. Alabama’s plus 10 in the turnover margin, which is the best in the SEC. 16 takeaways and OU’s minus five. So that’s one area where John Matier, who I believe can have a huge effect in this game, running the football. He had 80 yards rushing against Tennessee.
And if you look at Alabama’s defense the past couple of weeks, it’s also them struggling against running quarterbacks. Diego Pavia, he had 58 yards, but reveal has 61 yards in that game as well. So those are two key areas where he can take advantage.
I want to hone in on Matier just a little bit because Matier has been prehand injury matand injury mat. if he is fully healed or almost that what our insider Pete Daml said yesterday he’s getting closer to that how much does that bolster inside the mind of a quarterback knowing I can recapture some of that magic that had me as a Heisman Trophy candidate and we got to have this game yeah well that’s the thing you got to have this game so all the injury stuff Zuben it goes out the window like now you got to do what you got to do we’ll fix the the thumb and all that the knees whatever injuries you might have going on after the season so I think again if he can run the football guys at a high clip and even with running that ball you got to protect the ball to it’s one thing to get 10 yards, but then you get 10 yards and then you get a a strict fumble or those type of areas where you do take off.
You don’t need to take the hit zoom. So, it kind of goes hand in hand with what you’re saying as far as the injury being in his pass, but at the same time still don’t give up your body to where Alabama’s defenders can take off on you. And to your point, EJ, this feels like uh it’s a must-win for Oklahoma if they want to stay in the playoff conversation. They don’t have much room for error.
And the one thing that needs to happen for OU is Jamatier can’t continue to turn the ball over.
every game, even prehand injury, there’d be a throw or two where you’re like, “Ooh, why are you making that throw?” And he’d throw it either to the other team or the other team would drop it. And so that’s the thing that has to change. We know that Oklahoma is going to try to take the ball away, but John Matier cannot give the ball away.
Quickly, you have been so high on Tai Simpson.
The nation will be watching. This is a huge game. They’ve got the win streak at home. What are you seeing from Simpson that has completely flipped the script from that week one game against Florida State, which almost seems hard to believe it actually happened? The phrase is the rising tide raises all ships.
I think that’s the phrase. There you go. Right.
I didn’t even That wasn’t even that was accident. Right.
But Todd Simpson has has helped everyone around him get better from that week one loss. Yes, he’s played at a high level, but he keeps his teammates accountable. Talk to guys within that within that locker room, he’s not letting anyone slip. And so whether it’s Ryan Williams at receiver, whether it’s the offensive line or even the defense, he’s the ultimate leader for that team. So he’s keeping everyone playing at a higher level.
It’s not just him. You understand it’s all 22. Yeah. in a game like this with Tai Simpson and you can really help your Heisman opportunities too.
I mean, one thing that he’s really doing a great job of is just being decisive and accurate and those can always carry you on to success as a quarterback.
All right, so that game is going to be the middle of the triple header Saturday afternoon on your local ABC station at night under the lights between the hedges. It’s Texas and Georgia. Georgia doesn’t have just homefield advantage. They got this kind of homefield advantage. They’re 51-2 in their last 53 home games.
And so anytime you play at night on the road in the SEC, you know, it’s a great challenge. I can’t wait to see our fans. They embrace it. Uh this is one they’ve been waiting on a long time. Momentum is something you earn.
You earn it by how you practice and uh our team has to go out and earn it and and they’re have to earn it on the field Saturday night. They’re they’re hard to kill. You know, you got to play all 60 minutes against them.
Winning the game Saturday night. That that’s that’s our main focus.
That’s that’s what’s in front of us right now. Some of the most emotion I ever saw from Arch going in there right into the camera. Of course, you probably know that Arch was highly heavily recruited by Georgia, ended up picking Texas, another subplot to this game. A lot of people are talking about the reemergence of Arch, but you have looked inside the tape and you’re sort of telling us he’s getting a lot of help in making that happen and he needs that help. So, you go back to that game versus Vanderbilt.
People are like, “Man, Arch for 300 yards. It was so great.” Well, the first play, the first pass was a pretty much a screen that went 75 yards and Texas had Ryan Wingo make a big play.
There were a couple other screen plays and quick plays that the offense got a chance to make something happen. They needed to make something happen right here early in the game.
Ryan Wingo making big plays. So that’s what Texas hasn’t had a lot of this season. So it’s not like Arch Manning is having a resurgence per se, but everyone else around him is playing better. Whether it’s Ryan Wingo from last week, the running game, even the screen game, the defense has been consistent. So that’s got to be the story.
It’s not going to be or maybe it shouldn’t be, hey, Arch just had this resurgence.
No, the defense has to do what they do when everyone else around him has to lift up their level. Well, as a quarterback, when you have back-to-back 300 yard passing games, which is what Arch has has done. I mean, that’s that’s on Arch. And sure, you got guys around you making plays, but ultimately the reason why the screen game was hidden so well and why it had to hit is because Texas couldn’t run the football.
So, you know this when you start throwing bubble screens, you start hitting things out wide. What does that do? It stretches the defense. So, now I got better rush lanes inside when Trevor Wisner had about 70 75 yards in that most recent game that they won as well. So, I think it’s in tandem for Arch.
As long as he stays in control of what he’s doing, I think that’s where he gets out of whack where he starts to see maybe ghost a little bit and moves that around the pocket and then he’s trying to make an athletic throw.
Just stand in there, read your keys, and then move on and use that athleticism what you have to. Now, as a fivestar, nobody would ever accuse Arch of being a game manager. But as derogatory as that term sometimes is, there were people who are probably eating their words right now that said that’s exactly what Gunner Stockton is, right? Just manage the game.
We got a great defense. We got a great home field. But he has turned out to be EJ so much more than that. Big game Gunner Stockton is what I call I gave him that nickname maybe in like week four. But I tell you what, Gunnar just continues to rise his level of play whenever the game or the situations get even higher.
And I think the big thing for him down in the red zone, guys, is where he has really been elite. Once that field shrinks, obviously Gunner Stockton’s decision-making has to get faster and then his accuracy has to get sharper. Those two areas right now, again, this is a Georgia offense that’s ranked third, excuse me, a quarterback rating for Gunner Stockton is ranked third in the country. So, he does a great job. And it’s funny because so many people expect Georgia to be led by defense.
It’s really led by that guy. And when the the moment gets bigger, he raises his game even higher.
And the challenge about Gunner Stockton is the fact that you think, “Okay, man, let’s make him throw the ball. Let’s let’s let’s force him to throw it and that’s how we’re going to win if you’re a defensive guy.” But what’s happened is the Tennessee game, they said, “Hey, let’s make him throw it.
” And he threw it and he beat them with his arm. So, that’s the problem or the challenge with Gunner Stockton is he’s not just a dual threat quarterback.
He makes the right decisions at the right time with his legs and also with his arm through the air. It’s not just screen passes, it’s down the field shots as well, the accuracy when you don’t expect it. So that’s what makes Georgia special.
It’s Gunner Stockton can beat you in a myriad of ways. Yeah. And what’s really important to notice here is you take a look at the playoff odds we’re going to show you here for Texas. They’re kind of in the Oklahoma situation. They’re the two loss team that’s going on the road playing a one loss team.
So you can clearly tell with a win, Texas would feel great about its playoff possibilities. With the loss, it would dip to 30% which is still far better than what OU would have with a third L as the fellas are taking us inside line vine on Texas v Georgia. Thanks Zuba. We got a fantastic matchup in the SEC and it’s really about Georgia’s run game against Texas’s defensive stopping the run.
So here you’re going to see the offense.
You got Zachariah Branch. I want to keep in mind there, but also Sam, talk to us a little bit about what the defense from Mississippi State does not do well. So right now the defense is out leveraged. I’d love to see them get a little bit of leverage, right? Maybe give a call to say, “Hey, move out a little bit wider.
Even the nose, move a little bit wider.” Because these offensive linemen, they’re going to pull.
So, if they pull, all of a sudden, you’re out leverage here. You’re out leverage here. And then these two guys are going to have an opportunity to block the guys on the inside and it’s going to be bad news for the defense.
Absolutely. And so again, with Georgia creating really eye violations again, Zachariah Branch on the right of Gunner Stockton, Nate Fridge on the left, and this is the orbit motion. Let me get a pause real quick, Sam. So that orbit motion, you’re basically going to get Zachariah Branch to come around the quarterback and then you can delete that.
And what that creates is just eye violations on the defense.
Linebackers, safeties, all these guys from Mississippi State’s defense are going to be affected here with the simple motion. And then that creates the blocking lanes that Sam was just talking about on the other side. So on the orbit motion, that’s a big deal, right? Because all those guys are affected. But also, let’s notice the safety.
The safety is one of those five guys affected. There’s so much great leverage up here by these offensive linemen. So much great leverage up here. But that safety that you talked about earlier, he’s the only person that can make the play because of that over motion. Unfortunately, he’s too far away.
Absolutely. And still that over motion creates what we call a chef’s kiss in the offensive quarterback room for sure in the run game because now you give a fast running back that edge. Nate Frasier almost catching the touchdown right there. Now, let’s pause it right here. I want to show another part.
So, instead of it being an orbit motion, we’re going to get a jet sweep motion going across the quarterback right there.
Diego Pave is going to give a nice token fake and then that’s going to be a good part, but Texas does a great job of not getting out of position pre- snap where they stay at home in their rush lane. I love what you said, not getting out of position. So, Texas keeps great leverage on the inside and on the outside. You’re going to see some of those offensive linemen try to block down like we talked about, but man, that jet sweep motion and the over motion is not going to affect the outside linebacker or the defensive lineman.
Yeah, and that’s what we want as a as a offense. We really want to get you guys on defense out of position. So then we are able to one crease the run but then also create a lot of blocking lanes which again Texas does a great job of not allowing. And I really want you to point out here number 96 the three technique for Texas doing a great job of holding his gap.
They talked about eyes, hands and feet and extension.
That’s how you dominate up front. So Georgia is going to try to run the ball but Texas defense they play in great leverage and they don’t get out of their gaps. I really think this is going to be the key to the game. Can Georgia run the ball? alive presented by Dr.
Pepper. You know, we love the alliteration at ESPN. So, it is indeed somebody has made it a statement Saturday, which will begin with Notre Dame at Pit. EJ Pit’s got an 18-year-old true freshman who is lighting up CFB. Yeah, this guy is extremely dangerous.
One thing that he does a great job of is his decision-m, but also his athletic ability is going to have to show up Saturday against the Irish.
And I tell you what, he also can throw it at a high clip. 300 passing yard games are plenty for Mason Hinchel. And it’s not just the offense, it’s also the defense. Heel has been elite these last five games.
Hasn’t lost, but their defense has been great. I want to go to USF and Navy, another critical game. South Florida has a quarterback named Byron Brown who has been outstanding. He is a video game.
Like he does it with his arm and with his legs.
He’s a finalist for many trophies. But it’s not just their offense. Their defense hunts. They didn’t get the ball pretty much until the offense didn’t get the ball till early late last game and they were just dominant on defense. play Corbath runs a ball all over everybody else.
Yeah, and we should mention that game is actually at noon Eastern right here on ESPN 2 Saturday. Sam will be on the call and it looks like at this particular moment, South Florida looks like they’ve got the best chance to reach the playoff and to this juncture the committee agrees because you do see them in the 12 spot in their latest bracket.
It really feels like the American has an excellent chance to grab that spot. So, whoever gets it is going to be in the 12 spot. I have a hunch this team is going to be in the one spot if it keeps going.
How good was Ohio State last year under Ryan Day and then defensive coordinator Jim Nolles? That’s on the left portion of your screen. Matt Patricia, of course, the Patriots fame comes in after Nolles left and the numbers are frankly better. And think about that. Penn State backed up the Brinks truck to bring in Jim Nolles.
And then a guy from the NFL who is a failed head coach comes in and does better. It says everything you want to know about the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball. Let’s start with you. The bottom line is I watch you on College Football Final every Saturday. I’m waiting for the Ohio State highlight.
I got to wait till halfway through the show because they’re so boring and so predictable and so good.
There’s no reason to put them at the top with all the dramatic finishes. Are we underappreciating in this era of college football where every year is different how they’ve been super consistent with so much turnover? I think we are, Zuben. And you look at the defense for this football team.
One, they they got a bunch of great personnel. Kinada Kinatada Jackson and Downs, but but also the the schematics. They’re are number one in the Big 10 in so many different categories. Total defense, rush defense, third down that they allow to the opponent. And I just feel like when you look at Ohio State team, it’s not just about Julian Sain and Jeremiah Smith, which gets a lot of the air time on TV.
It’s about the defense. They force turnovers. And again, if I’m on if I’m a quarterback of a team and I know as long as we score 14 points, we got a good chance to win because my defense gives up about a seven uh point break every weekend, I’m gonna feel extremely confident who I am.
And he’s not just feeling. Julian Seyan isn’t just feeling confident, he’s playing confident.
There have been a lot of quarterbacks that have been up and that have been down. But Julian Sand has just been consistent. I think the stat says there hasn’t been a game where he’s thrown three straight incompletions in a row. Many times he’ll have more touchdowns than than incompletions. That’s the level of play that Julian Sand is playing at and that’s the level of play that number four Jeremiah Smith is playing at.
There are a lot of young talented receivers, but not all of them play at a consistent level like Jeremiah Smith and even young quarterbacks like Julian Sand.
And so, yes, the defense has been a huge reason. But Julian S is squarely in that Heisman conversation because he’s played at such a high level. I’m going to bring this stat out. I just want your opinion on this.
There have been five Ohio State coaches that have won the national title. But think about all the great coaches at Ohio State. Nobody has gone back to back. And now Ryan Day, who never had a head coaching job prior to getting the Ohio State job, is in a position to do it in an era where it’s probably harder to keep the talent as much as it is anywhere. That’s a great point.
And you also look at the culture of this football team.
It’s one that they expect to win. They play clean football. They don’t beat themselves. And that’s it’s not just about having the talent, but it’s also about having the discipline when you actually go out there and execute what you do on offense, special teams, and on defense.
All right. Great stuff. We’ll look forward to that game. They got UCLA, by the way, this weekend if I didn’t mention that.
Now for our Dr.
Pepper Championship drive game of the week. Surprise, surprise. We’re going back to the SEC. It’s about time we talked about Texas A&M. Got to remind myself this is the only undefeated team in the best conference in America.
And they’re not one nor two in the eyes of the committee. They’ll take on South Carolina, who of course has been beset by a ton of injury problems this year. Only a margin, but an overall plurality of the votes.
Oklahoma gets the nod, and that would probably rock it up in the mind of fans if they could knock off Alabama. But then they’d probably be on the inside and not on the outside looking in.
We’re inside the studio here with Joe Forinball. It’s time for friendly wagers. Pop up the first one here and I want to give you a quick weather forecast which could help. Okay, Iowa last week played in the rain at home against Oregon. They’re at SC.
100% chance of rain. 1 to 2 in LA which is like a tsunami out there as you well know. Just wanted to put that out there because weather can always be a factor. All right. How can it be 100%.
You know what? Give yourself a little leeway with 99% when you get that one wrong. Either way, even though that kind of plays into what Iowa wants to do, we’re going to go USC.
Extra day of rest with the Friday game against Northwestern. Iowa, you got to wonder if you could pick yourself up off the mat.
That game against Oregon was excruciating. Now you got to go out to the West Coast. USC 4-1 against the spread at home this season. We’re laying the six and a half. It’s supposed to never rain in Southern California, right?
So give me Iowa plus 6 and a half.
Even if USC wins this game, guys, I think Iowa makes it tough on them. and stays close. I go USC just because of what’s on the table for them. They’re a two loss team with an opportunity versus Iowa and Oregon.
You get dialed in and focused. An Iowa team that is coming off of a loss. I like USC in this fight. One thing quick, Joe, by the way, if you’re Iowa, keep tabs on number 80 for USC. If you’ve been following, that’s how we Okay, here we go.
Game number two. This is the biggest red flag of the entire week. This team right here is five and four. This team right here is 8-2. No major injuries to worry about.
Why are you laying five and a half points if you’re five and four and they’re eight and two? We’re going to go ahead and play Duke here. Now Duke, we called the flat spot last week against Yukon. That game meant nothing. They got caught looking ahead to this game this week.
Virginia very good at 8 and2. The thing is over the course of the season, they’ve been very fortunate. If you go inside the box scores and a lot of their wins, good team, not as great as the record indicates, we lay the points. Joe, give me Duke as well. Not sure if Chandler Morris, the quarterback for UVA, will be available.
That’s my word. Yeah. So, there is a major injury potential. their quarterback. So, we don’t know.
So, that’s why I actually do like Hey, hey, boom.
Duke as well. Yeah, nicely done. All right, we’re going to keep it moving. Last one.
This is a very specific bet here. We’re going to play Texas. Your boys in the first half minus three and a half. Second half does not matter at all in this game. We’re catching three and a half here.
Here’s the key. Sarkeesian off the buy in his career off the buy at Texas. 3-1 if you include the playoff with extra rest.
Last year, they were 4- one. Add a few wrinkles.
Georgia tends to start slow and then peak in the second half. Give me Georgia minus three and a half. We’re doing the first half. I still like big game Gunner Stockton. I think they win this game outright ultimately.
I like that first half for Georgia as well. They were dominant last year vers. May take a second half comeback for Arch and the Longhorns. All right, so there you have it as we set up for week 12 of the season.
And just a reminder, you can catch this guy and this guy in the studio tonight when Week 12 kicks off on ESPN with Troy and ODU 7:30 Eastern.
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